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第一个月：逐日推演 — how 2,435 displaced people are fed (and not fed) across thirty-five days, from canteen reserve through famine to the elephant.
This is not a summary — it is the working model. The colony's first month is computed from first principles by three deterministic models that chain together: what was on hand, how the canteen rationed it down, what the hunters brought in, and the fuel that decided both. Every number below is derived, not asserted. Walk the chain with the steps; then open any sheet and dissect it like a spreadsheet — sort a column, switch the view, hide columns, drag the day range, group the days into phases, or click a Day to see that single day across all three models at once.
Step 1 · the starting position
The campus canteen — anniversary day, freshly restocked, plus the frozen reserve — held about of food. Against a working colony's appetite that is only . The fuel position was worse: a diesel store that could not even run the campus for two days at full draw, and a single small pool of gasoline that was the hunters' only platform. Everything that follows is the colony spending down these three numbers.
“This canteen normally serves ~5,000 people and restocks only ~3 days at a time. But today is the anniversary, so they bought more — plus the frozen reserve. Rough estimate: enough to feed us about 12 days.” — Wang Gong's calculation (Ch. 5). At the working ration it was closer to eight; that gap is why hard rationing was unavoidable.
Step 2 · the ration step-down
The canteen serves the highest tier whose stores still last a safety buffer, stepping down preemptively rather than riding a tier to zero — so the transition days emerge from the arithmetic, not the calendar. Perishables are eaten first (the cold chain is about to fail — see Step 4). What people actually eat is the thin stock draw plus the day's gain; as the larder empties the colony-mean falls into canon's acute-famine band, the rain week is the trough, and the Day-23 hunt breaks it.
Step 3 · the hunt
There was always some hunting — small and disorganized at first (§4.1.1), never zero. It builds to ~300 kg/day, collapses in the rain week (the SUVs bog, the game scatters), recovers, and then the Day-23 organized operation — the elephant plus same-day game, ~3,400 kg — ends the acute famine. During the famine that thin early catch is reserved for the micro-fuel list, which is why it can be true at once that the colony hunts every day and starves. After the breakthrough the curve climbs to a ~1,300 kg peak, then declines across the year.
Step 4 · the fuel that decided both
The 25,500 L diesel store cannot power the campus — rationing is forced from Day 1, down to a survival floor and then to a single hospital generator. Two links to food: the cafeteria generator (the cold chain) is cut on Day 1, which is why the perishables must be eaten first; and the separate gasoline pool is the SUV hunting platform — preserved early, then spent on the operation that ends the famine. Fuel is the hidden variable under both the spoilage and the hunt.
Step 5 · the harm ledger
Deaths come from more than one place, and not everyone harmed dies. This is the colony's physical-casualty ledger — every death tagged by the stream that caused it (battle, famine, medicine, refeed, accident) and tracked alongside the wounded and the disabled. The deadliest single day is not the famine but Day 10: the Portuguese beach contact, where panic-fire kills two of the colony's own and two Portuguese, and leaves several wounded. The day also sends three survivors home in shock — but that is a mental wound, not a physical one, so it is filed in the next step (Step 6, morale) where it belongs, as an input to mental state rather than a body alongside the wounded and disabled. This is the start of a wider harm-accounting subsystem — disease and work-accident streams are still owed their own daily tracking. Switch the view to read it by stream, by state, or by side.
Step 6 · the mental-state ledger
The four streams above are physical. This one is not. Morale is the colony's mental state, computed last and read by nothing — it is the terminal ledger: no physical step depends on it, so it can carry the felt cost without distorting the food or the fuel. It is genuinely per-cohort: the eight archetypes do not share one number. Three things move it — famine despair (the daily calorie deficit, the dominant channel), dictated event shocks (the Lin Guobiao case, the Day-10 gunfight, the Day-24 breakthrough), and the carried weight of the traumatized survivors — the mental wound the casualty ledger deliberately does not count as a body. The pattern: a shocked residual after Day 10, deepening despair across the rain week, then the Day-24 hunt lifting every cohort back toward baseline — the false happy ending.
Step 7 · the outcome
Generated by substrate/daily_state/engine/export_food_model_site.py from the
verified models — food_balance_check.py, hunting_curve.py,
fuel_balance_check.py, casualty_check.py, and the per-cohort morale readout
morale_check.py (a pure read of the terminal morale ledger in
weekly_aggregation.generated.json). Sources: the canteen-manager chapters (Ch. 5,
108–112), 食物问题推算.docx (Rose Yang / 杨红缨 quartermaster plan), and
worldbuilding/canon/sa1628_food_security_and_famine.md §4.1.1 / §6. The richer
per-person version (all 2,435 people) is the ledger at substrate/daily_state/engine/chain.py.